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ARE WE READY FOR THE ULTIMATE GAMBLE?
Authored By:
Abhishek Rawat
IIM Indore – Batch of 2008
Mail : p06abhishekr@iimidr.ac.in
“God does not play dice with men.” Albert Einstein’s
famous lines about the Quantum theory had found its equal share of supporters and detractors. According to him,
a theory which itself remained enveloped in
indeterminism could hardly explain the workings of the universe. The debate
over the matter raged on for the
better part of the twentieth century and Sir Albert continued to enjoy a long
line of followers long past
his time.
The question whether God actually does play dice or not
may perhaps remain shrouded in mystery forever. But if there
was one thing that was certain at the beginning of the third millennium, it
was the decision facing mankind
about its future and more importantly the future of the world it inhabited.
The 21st century would be remembered as the age of the
“Third World”. The developing nations of the world like China and India had started churning their machines
of growth faster and their lust for resources had increased
exponentially. Spanning huge geographical regions and myriad cultures, these countries were home to three‐quarters of the world
population. A population which had suddenly discovered the concept of demand and that demand was growing
fast. Earth, which had provided for all of its children since
the dawn of life was suddenly under the threat of emaciation by a strong pull
on the umbilical cord.
Let us now imagine that the fate of this world is indeed
to be decided by a toss of a coin. Let us further imagine that the two faces of this coin represent two
disparate decisions mankind will make about its future. The impact of this celestial coin toss would be
presented to us by August Christopher, our guide for this journey. Born right in the heart of these
tumultuous times of early 21st century, his life like countless others will depend on the result of that coin
toss. Even as the toss is being made, little August is reluctantly getting ready to leave the comfort of his
mother’s womb. After a few valiant efforts to resist the pull of the outside world, August finally relents and
is immediately blinded by the first lights of his new life. At the same time somewhere in the vast expanse of
the universe, the celestial coin toss is complete.
HEADS
August was named after his grandfather on the father’s
side and declared a healthy baby with all bodily functions working perfectly. The year was the first of
the new millennium. Touted as the age of man’s conquest, it was when all the hard work and toil of the last
millennium would come to fruition. Great strides in technology
and science were ready to turn into gallops of innovation and discovery.
Already predictions were being
made which claimed about the eradication of poverty and diseases. Forecasts well into the future auspicated major changes in the
global power center of gravity. The charge towards development was to be unstoppable and fed continuously
from the bowels of Mother Earth.
At the time when August started taking his first lessons
on his LEGO set Crude Oil, the lifeline of the world, was discovered to be finite. It had been given a lifetime
which was limited and rapidly running out. Crude oil had
enjoyed the power of single handedly determining the world economy and making
it dance to its tunes. It
had been the power behind the technological revolution of the eighteen and nineteen hundreds, the cause behind many wars and an
instrument of political and economic leverage. The knowledge that it was not endless had suddenly made it even
more desirable. Suddenly concerns for a resource which
was thought to be endless were being raised by a few prescient folk who
vented out their emotions in
the form of demonstrations and parades. Such demonstrations were seldom acknowledged and mostly ignored. The logic was simple.
The need of the hour was growth and the automotive giants of
the world were not ready to stop minting out their oil guzzling monsters just
as yet. As long as they kept
the government’s wallet fattened up, they could breathe easy and stop
worrying about these minor
distractions. The world continued its quest for development unabashedly
unaware of its implications.
Meanwhile, little August joined his first school.
For his tenth birthday August received a medical kit. He
had developed asthma and myopic vision at a tender age which the doctors attributed to the city pollution.
His parents, though concerned, were not alarmed since these
symptoms were common among young kids of August’s
age. Just as the pediatrician handed over the
prescription to August’s parents, the next day’s
edition of The Wall Street Journal went into print. China had
once again become the world leader in automobile sales and the biggest buyer
of crude oil for the 15th
year running. The paper also ran a small article by an eminent
environmentalist about the threat of
pollution to the global climate. The article was tucked into a small corner
next to the more enduring news of
increased trade between the EU and India and was subsequently forgotten. Next year snowfall skipped New York in Christmas as Earth
observed the hottest year in its history.
Graduating in the middle of his class, August was as
confused about his future as any other 19 years old. How increasing oil prices related to increasing
inflation and increasing unemployment was beyond his comprehension. Four months ago OPEC, the leading oil
supplier to the world, had dealt its most recent supply shock to the world, tripling the price of crude.
The black gold was definitely running out and OPEC wanted all the money it could make. The announcement had
sent shockwaves throughout the world, igniting
inflation all over and bringing the auto giants to their knees. Their fall
had a domino effect as all the
related industries soon followed the downward spiral. Brazil, unable to
satiate its demand for oil with the
money on hand, made the ultimate trade. The Amazon rainforests, the largest cradle of biodiversity on earth, were to be cut, ravaged
and pillaged even more in order to keep the industrial machines moving along.
Doubled over with a lack of demand, the industries of
the “developed world” made a secret plea to their respective heads of state. The nations were headed to
the biggest abyss of depression in their histories unless something was done quickly. In a last resort for
survival, the nations of the world united and through a bombastic live speech delivered by the president of
the United States declared war on the “evil” states of the
OPEC. The cheers could be heard long into the night that day with the loudest
of them all coming from
August Christopher. The next day, on his 20th birthday, he joined the “cause”
and got ready to wage war
for the motherland.
Two months into the war without any result the US
economy finally snapped under the strain taking everyone else with it. One by one global economies crumbled.
Without any oil to mobilize their machines of war, the
nations slowly cut off their support and pulled out of the war seeking to
sustain whatever remained of
their ravaged selves. The same year, 95% of India’s crops were devastated due
to an unexpected weather
pattern that made the monsoons pass without a single raindrop. During the same time in a baking stretch of desert in the gulf, an
M1 Abrams tank of the US army chugged to a halt and so did the heart of
August Christopher manning the controls inside it.
The “celestial coin tosser”
was amused with the concept of probability. According to probability, for an unbiased coin
toss there was an equal chance of a head or a tail turning face up. He
decided to give it a try. The toss was made and sure enough the claim of probability
was verified. Right about then August Christopher started crying for the first time in
the outside world.
TAILS
August was named after his grandfather on the father’s
side and declared a healthy baby with all bodily functions working perfectly. Mankind had entered the new
millennium with a spring in its step and a song on its lips. Great leaps in innovation in the fag end of
the last century had paved the way for a perfect launching pad
of invention and self realization. Globalization was the word of the hour and parity was slowly making its way across the globe.
Countries like India and China were forecasted to lead the charge into the new century but needed to fuel their
growth with the rapidly vanishing resources of Mother Earth.
The findings in the beginning of the century that crude
oil supply was no longer infinite had raised concerns in only a few among the academic and political circles.
Surely nature, which had provided for the growth of man for
the past millions of years, could sustain its children for a long time
henceforth. At the time when August
started playing with his first toys, academic scholars and leaders around the world began to unite in order to bring awareness to the
ignorant mob of the world. The visionaries, in their countless publications and seminars, stressed the fact
that the resources of Mother Earth were indeed finite and
quickly diminishing.
August joined preschool as a healthy and bubbling child.
Amicable and with an energy of a rabbit, he quickly made fast friends and began the formal learning process
of education. He was especially excited today as he told his
friends about the new car his parents had brought home. The GM Electron was a response to the growing demands of the public to find a
substitute for the old and expensive oil cars. It was also a bid to improve their brand image in light of
the awareness being brought about the academic scholars throughout the world of the effects of pollution on the
world climate. The Electron was a smash hit among the people
and GM finally breathed easy on the investment it had long thought to be a no winner. Competitors followed suit and soon the
automobile industry went into the biggest revolution since Henry Ford unveiled the model T. Fuel efficiency
and fuel free cars set about changing the face of the automotive industry forever.
On his tenth birthday August was gifted a medical kit by
his parents. As he excitedly started exploring its different contents, eminent environmentalists and
academicians from around the world announced the establishment of the World Environmental Group (WEG) in
association with the United Nations. The WEG was to be
responsible for raising awareness about the need for sustenance of natural
resources. In addition, all
governments were made to obey standards set by the WEG so that the most
efficient use of Earth’s limited
resources could be made. The WEG also acted as a forum for research where
scientists from different
countries gathered together to research and discover new sources of power.
The group was also responsible
for bringing efficiency into the more expensive sources of power like tar
sands, coal and oil shales.
By the time August graduated at the top 10% of his
class, the Unified Nuclear Reform (UNR) was well into its 10th year. Started early in the decade UNR was
formally inducted into the WEG five years before. The United Nuclear Reform was a seminal body dedicated
to research in the field of imparting nuclear power to civilian causes. In its short existence, UNR had made
remarkable contributions to the field like increasing the field and making considerable headway into the
discovery of cold fusion. By the time of the third year of August’s graduate studies in Bioengineering, the WEG had
helped in reducing the world pollution levels for
the first time even as development and growth spurred on unabated.
On his 23rd birthday, August made a decision to do a
field study in the Amazon as part of his PhD in Bioengineering. As he flew over the Amazon Rainforests, August
could hardly control his excitement. He had in his hands an
environmental journal that talked about the Titan glacier of the Antarctic,
which hitherto endangered by
the threat of global warming, had been declared safe to live another century.
As the chartered plane
took a descent for landing August let loose a smile from his lips. He felt
it. It was finally happening. We
were finally recognizing our responsibilities.
The palm closes on the coin for a third time. The
“celestial tosser” wonders what future of mankind
he holds in his
palm now. The results are apparent and the gamble is the ultimate one. One
may never find out if God actually does play dice or not but one thing that is
certain to this “celestial tosser” is that he is no God. He is
human. He is August Christopher and the future of mankind lies firmly in his
palm. But is mankind really willing to take that risk? There is only one way
to find out. Toss the coin.
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